Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 23.773560 28.175574 33.658652 41.180949 51.562425 65.946050 88.541090
2024-12-29 18.637071 23.562608 30.389231 41.096655 58.716956 89.558718 157.699365
2025-01-05 15.287651 20.017071 26.975694 38.801662 60.637718 106.077671 242.682081
2025-01-12 12.877361 17.222097 23.854664 35.722380 59.422261 115.525937 337.306232
2025-01-19 11.226591 15.257992 21.589331 33.389985 58.534024 125.284058 477.386608
2025-01-26 11.330457 15.958743 23.708802 39.612425 79.516887 226.765409 3098.786077
2025-02-02 10.868578 15.664535 24.042014 42.418194 94.581201 354.331343 NaN
2025-02-09 9.855015 14.316738 22.226046 39.994775 92.835064 392.040753 NaN
2025-02-16 9.454097 13.966235 22.220338 41.756822 106.368738 618.769972 NaN
2025-02-23 8.917974 13.316697 21.529298 41.655828 113.389613 870.268611 NaN
2025-03-02 8.435506 12.713881 20.845164 41.398441 119.919005 1257.112613 NaN
2025-03-09 8.113689 12.370036 20.640744 42.385891 133.530096 2406.100076 NaN
2025-03-16 7.564186 11.589759 19.488031 40.619984 133.071435 3320.090474 NaN
2025-03-23 7.193464 11.115337 18.938439 40.513582 142.464053 7934.394674 NaN
2025-03-30 6.711104 10.392413 17.766867 38.265358 137.143240 10244.149926 NaN
2025-04-06 6.217617 9.618558 16.417933 35.248697 125.211537 8104.946079 NaN
2025-04-13 5.813244 8.993276 15.351383 32.962042 117.120690 7613.268185 NaN
2025-04-20 5.989618 9.489312 16.825102 39.059067 176.061752 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.925154 9.508077 17.214800 41.804859 220.400611 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.600124 8.983656 16.256817 39.433366 207.030315 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.502217 8.911203 16.382964 41.157810 246.997623 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.324510 8.664105 16.054851 41.058993 264.962274 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.152505 8.418495 15.707360 40.807143 281.571984 NaN NaN